Return of the MAX (Still Waiting for Its Big Break?) – Airways | Airlines

Boeing 737 Max 8 Safety Statement.jpg

DALLAS — In a week when Boeing took the lion’s share of Dubai Airshow orders, Aviation Values‘ Head of Commercial Analysts, Gary Crichlow, shared his data insights on the Boeing 737 MAX.

The article, which we share here as is as we believe it is of interest to our readers, covers the Boeing 737 MAX family production rates, inventory, liquidation, and an in-depth analysis by the ISTAT Certified Appraiser. Mr. Crichlow will argue, based on analysis of historical production and deliveries as well as the MAX backlog, that:

  • While Boeing has made substantial progress in clearing its MAX inventory, it will be quite a challenge to meet its stated target by the end of next year. At current average liquidation rates, we believe the end of 2026 is more realistic
  • The MAX 10, alongside the MAX 8, is likely to be the dominant MAX types
  • Certification and entry into service of the MAX 10, even more so than the MAX 7, is absolutely crucial to the MAX finally getting its big break
At DAS2023, Boeing and Ethiopian Airlines announced the carrier agreed to order 11 787 Dreamliner and 20 737 MAX airplanes with an opportunity for 15 and 21 additional jets, respectively. Image: Boeing

737 Historical Production Rates

AviationValues tracks every commercial aircraft worldwide, from its first flight onwards. By looking at every Boeing 737’s first flight information (both Next Generation and MAX families), we can build a picture of 737 production over the past 10 years.

Clearly, there are some limitations in terms of including aircraft that may have rolled off the assembly line but not actually flown. With that caveat, the overall picture of our analysis shows good alignment with production comments made by the manufacturer during investor presentations and earnings calls over that period.

The data shows a relatively smooth ramp-up of MAX production from 2017, with the MAX gradually taking over the assembly line volume as the Next Generation…

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