In August 2023, the African aviation industry is demonstrating remarkable resilience and growth, with traffic carried by African airlines reaching an impressive 98.4% of the 2019 levels. This resurgence is underpinned by various factors and industry dynamics that highlight the promising prospects for African aviation.
Recovery Trends: Almost Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels
One of the most encouraging trends in the African aviation industry is the near-complete recovery to 2019 traffic levels. This signifies a significant milestone, with domestic, intra-Africa, and intercontinental market shares estimated at 34%, 29%, and 37%, respectively. It’s a testament to the industry’s resilience and adaptability in the face of unprecedented challenges.
African airlines have not only rebounded but are also expanding their horizons. The total number of intercontinental routes operated by African airlines has surpassed pre-COVID levels since October 2022. In major airports like Johannesburg, Nairobi, Addis Ababa, Lusaka, Cairo, Casablanca, Abidjan, and Lomé, intra-Africa connectivity reached or exceeded pre-COVID levels since December 2022. This expansion showcases the industry’s determination to provide extensive connectivity across the continent and beyond.
Financial Outlook: Narrowing the Revenue Gap
The financial outlook for African airlines in 2023 is looking brighter. In the first three months of the year, African airlines missed 2019 revenue levels by just $0.3 billion. According to AFRAA data, this gap is expected to further narrow in the second quarter to $0.2 billion for the quarter. While the full-year estimated revenue gap is yet to be computed, it appears that 2023 will be a significantly better year compared to the challenging year of 2022, when the cumulative revenue gap was $3.5 billion for all African airlines compared to 2019.
Despite the positive performance, African airlines are grappling…
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